As we wrapped up January, local market data shows that inventory levels have ticked up modestly, with more homes coming to market compared with the late-2025 trough—consistent with normal seasonal patterns where sellers begin listing early ahead of the traditional spring selling season. This gradual boost in supply means buyers now have a bit more choice than they did in late fall and early winter, though overall inventory remains tempered. Meanwhile, buyer demand has stayed relatively flat, not showing a significant uptick yet but holding steady through the start of the year, which again aligns with typical seasonal cycles before demand accelerates later in the spring. Local reports also reflect that while homes are receiving attention, many are lingering on the market a bit longer and price negotiations are common—further evidence that demand isn’t yet outpacing supply.
For my fellow number nerds, the increase in supply without an increase in demand has lowered our Cromford Index slightly to a score of 86.2, indicating a Buyer’s Market. It is important to note that is for the entire Phoenix Metro area, and we see vastly different markets in certain cities, zipcodes, or even specific neighborhoods. For example, Gilbert is sitting at a Cromford Index of 144 which puts it in slight Seller’s Market territory, while Queen Creek is below the average at a score of 63.7 putting it solidly in Buyer’s Market levels.
Looking ahead, most analysts expect the Southeast Valley market to continue tracking normal seasonal trends: as spring approaches and inventory increases further, buyer activity should begin to rise soon after. Traditionally, this leads to more contract activity in February–March and peaks through April and May. If this pattern holds again in 2026—as it has the past several years—the overall market could shift more toward balanced conditions, where neither buyers nor sellers hold overwhelming leverage, before potentially trending tighter if demand gains momentum later in the selling season.
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